October 2024 Q&A
In this week’s update I answer several questions I’ve been asked over the course of the last several weeks. As always, feel free to ask me questions. I’m happy to share my thoughts with you.
- Michael, what is your role in the Investment Department?
I head up the Investment Policy Committee, which consists of key decision makers in the firm regarding research related matters. Our Chief Investment Strategist, Craig Gentry, is also on this committee. We’ve been working together 20+ years and we are supported by our great portfolio managers, equity analysts, and traders.
Additionally, I focus a significant amount of my efforts on Federal Reserve policy as well as the economic outlook for the United States (as well as on a global basis). These judgments impact how we invest portfolio strategies.
2. The Fed decreased interest rates by 50 basis points during their last meeting, do you expect more cuts?
Obviously, this is economics driven, but I do expect more cuts. I believe the economy is softening and inflation does appear to be coming down. Our base-case scenario is that we likely will see another cut this year and perhaps one more the first part of next year. That would get us to an additional 50 basis point cut.
But of course, this is completely dependent on the economy. We will be watching the data closely.
3. I read China implemented a huge stimulus program. Does this mean it’s time to start buying China?
As you know we’re slightly invested in China through global assets we own. Despite the recent announcement, I don’t think it’s time to get euphoric about China. This cut is less about stimulating the Chinese economy but more so designed to help the economy to stabilize.
I continue to believe that China is transitioning towards a consumption economy which carries a significantly slower growth rate than an export economy. China is turning into a more mature economy which means one should be less optimistic about future returns.
4. I see a lot of headlines about advisors selling, merging, etc. Michael you’re not as young as you used to be you know! When do you plan on retiring?
That kind of reminds me of a comment that someone made during a recent speech. After the presentation, someone said, "I really enjoy watching you on CNBC, but I must say you look much better on TV than you do in person."
Umm. Thank you?
I’m not selling, I’m not merging, I’m not reducing the quality of service we are provide, I’m not cutting costs, I’m not retiring. I’m going to be very involved in the investment decisions of the firm for a very long time (God willing) and it is my goal to work to an age older than Warren Buffett.
Serving you. My team. And the community. That's my life mission. I'll be around to make sure all is well.
