DWM Investment Process

Insight on DWM’s Investment Process

I had an interesting conversation with a sophisticated investor this morning asking us about our investment process. His thoughtful questions caused me to consider if perhaps more detail on our investment strategy might be helpful. While I recognize some of this may be more detailed than you would like, I thought it might be a good idea in the spirit of greater transparency to outline how we make investment decisions here at Destination Wealth Management.

Our process is sophisticated and detailed, but I’ve tried to summarize a few basic themes. The topics covered include:

• Investment Philosophy
• Economic Outlook and your portfolio
• Your Investment Objective
• Trading Strategy
• Overall Portfolio Strategy
• How often are portfolio strategies reviewed
• How can I get more information about my investment strategy

You can watch the video here for greater detail on how we make investment judgments in normal as well as unprecedented times:

https://destinationwm.wistia.com/medias/2we7c5wiwf

Vaccine Hope

On another topic, as I have mentioned previously, this is a health driven crisis causing financial problems. For this reason, we believe that despite the depth of the downturn (which will be significant), adequate treatment and a proven vaccine will likely bolster confidence for consumers and investors. The headline on Monday that MODERNA appears to have had initial success in a very limited trial bumped markets higher. Is this premature? Perhaps, but such is the sentiment that we face nowadays in today's market. People are looking for hope.

Below is an excerpt from that article.

***
Begin Quote 

Moderna’s closely watched early-stage human trial for a coronavirus vaccine produced Covid-19 antibodies in all 45 participants, the biotech company announced Monday, sending the company’s shares surging nearly 20%.

Each participant received a 25, 100 or 250 microgram dose, with 15 people in each dose group. Participants received two doses of the potential vaccine via intramuscular injection in the upper arm approximately 28 days apart.

At day 43, or two weeks following the second dose, levels of binding antibodies in the 25 microgram group were at the levels generally seen in blood samples from people who recovered from the disease, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company said. Those in the 100 microgram had antibodies that “significantly exceeded levels” in recovered patients. Data on a second dose was not available for the 250 microgram group, the company said.

You can read the full article here:

Source: May 18, 2020, CNBC.com
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/moderna-reports-positive-data-on-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html 

End Quote

***

Be Cautious in Perspective

What's amazing about the bump in sentiment is that the trial sample size was only 45 people. In other words, this is just an initial study and in no way represents a clear scientific outcome to determine if a vaccine is effective or safe. It's a positive step forward but is still just an initial study. We have had many discussions with health experts and immunologists who continually warn us about becoming too optimistic. The vaccine development process is bound to be paved with good and bad news. Expect both they tell us.

Market sentiment continues to be highly emotional and we expect intense emotion to continue. Always remember that markets are data and emotion driven. They do not only move based on fact but the perception of the meaning of that fact. This is why the short-term game in investing is a very difficult exercise. The longer the time horizon you have, the higher the probability of success.

Please continue to be safe and recognize that we have a challenging road ahead as we move through this pandemic crisis.